Spring is usually when Canada’s housing market wakes up. Usually.
After a quieter-than-expected start to 2026, March came in like a lamb, and went out like one, too. Home sales held steady, new listings barely moved, and a late-month spike in fixed mortgage rates added another wrinkle to what’s shaping up to be a bit of a “hurry up and wait” kind of spring.
Before we get into what this slower start could mean for buyers and sellers, here’s what you need to know from the latest Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) housing data for March:
• National home sales were virtually unchanged (-0.1%) in March compared to February.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 2.3% below March 2025 levels.
• The number of newly listed properties edged down 0.2% month-over-month.
• The national average home price came in at $673,084, down 0.8% compared to March 2025.
Why hasn’t Canada’s spring housing market taken off in 2026?
If you were expecting a busy spring market by now, you’re not alone.
After all, a lot of the pieces were in place: lower borrowing costs earlier in the year, improved affordability compared to recent peaks, and a backlog of buyers waiting on the sidelines.
But then came a curveball.
“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” said CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart.
In other words, just as the market was getting ready to ramp up, borrowing costs moved in the wrong direction.
Spring is typically the busiest time of year for real estate in Canada, and when uncertainty — especially around interest rates — enters the picture, many buyers choose to wait things out rather than jump in.
Cathcart notes that while 2026 is still expected to see some modest upward momentum, the recent shift in mortgage rates and the idea they could come back down again, may keep buyers on the sidelines during peak months like April, May and June.
Is the housing market balanced right now?
Despite the slower pace, the market isn’t tipping dramatically in either direction.
With both sales and new listings barely moving in March, the national sales-to-new listings ratio came in at 47.8%. That’s just below the long-term average of 54.8%, and still within the range typically associated with balanced market conditions.
So, what does that mean? Currently, at a national level, we’re seeing fewer bidding wars and more time to make decisions.
Much of the current hesitation is tied directly to those aforementioned interest rates. For buyers exploring variable-rate options, today’s market could offer more choice and less competition. For those focused on fixed rates, the recent jump may be enough to hit pause.
“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” said Garry Bhaura, a
REALTOR® and the CREA 2026-2027 Chair.
As always, it depends on your situation and where you’re looking. Because while national numbers paint a steady picture, local markets across Canada continue to tell very different stories.
Are home prices dropping in Canada?
At a national level, home prices continue to trend downward, just at a slower pace.
The MLS® Home Price Index declined 0.4% in March, marking a smaller drop than in both January and February. On a year-over-year basis, prices were down 4.7%, only slightly improved from February’s 4.8% decline.
Zoom out, and prices are still adjusting, but the pace of that adjustment is easing.
CREA has been pointing to price stabilization as a key milestone for bringing buyers back into the market in larger numbers. And while we’re not fully there yet, recent data suggests things may be moving in that direction.
Regionally, however, the story remains mixed.
Prices are still down year-over-year in some of Canada’s largest and most expensive markets (British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario), while gains in other provinces are helping offset those declines.
CREA forecast for 2026: what to expect now
Alongside March’s data, CREA also updated its housing outlook for the next two years.
After a slower-than-expected start to 2026 and new uncertainty around interest rates, the national forecast for home sales has been lowered.
CREA now expects 474,972 homes to trade hands in 2026, now representing a 1% increase from 2025. The last forecast stated there would be a 5.1% increase in home sales in 2026 compared to 2025. While pent-up demand, especially from first-time buyers, is still expected to emerge, higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are likely to keep activity more subdued than previously anticipated, CREA says.
On the price side, the outlook is similarly steady.
The national average home price is forecast to increase 1.5% in 2026 to $688,955, down from the previous forecast of a 2.8% rise.
Home prices are mostly rising across Canada
As with current market conditions, the forecast varies widely by region.
British Columbia and Ontario are expected to lead the recovery in sales activity over the next couple of years, largely because they have more room to rebound following recent slowdowns.
At the same time, some provinces that saw elevated activity in recent years may see flatter or even slightly declining sales in the near term. Higher-priced markets like B.C., Alberta, and Ontario are expected to see little to no price growth in 2026, while more affordable regions (Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada) are forecast to post moderate gains in the 2% to 5% range.
Again, it all reinforces the same idea: there is no single “Canadian housing market” — only a collection of local ones moving at different speeds.
Will the housing market pick up in 2026?
The ingredients for a more active market are still there: pent-up demand, improving affordability compared to peak levels, and a relatively balanced supply-demand dynamic.
With mortgage rates moving unexpectedly and economic uncertainty lingering, many buyers appear to be waiting for a clearer signal before making their move.
“Spring tends to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not be quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago,” said Bhaura. “For those of you not impacted by the recent jump in mortgage rates, get working with a local REALTOR® today.”
— REALTOR.ca