By Peter Squire
The Manitoba Real Estate Association (MREA) and WinnipegREALTORS® recently commissioned a public opinion survey asking Manitobans if the Covid-19 pandemic had impacted their plans to enter the real estate market. From June 2 to 11, a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba was conducted by Probe Research on behalf of both organizations.
The results appear to tell us that despite the current situation, Manitobans retain a healthy optimism about their dream of homeownership.
“The survey results tell us the majority of Manitobans have confidence in the real estate market despite the Covid-19 pandemic,” said MREA President Glen Tosh. “These findings reflect a significant rebound in housing market activity we have seen in Manitoba beginning in May, with momentum that has continued in June.”
According to the survey, only one-in-ten Manitobans (11%) say they are now less likely to purchase a home because of Covid-19, with the vast majority (84%) saying the pandemic has no bearing on their homebuying intentions and a small number (4%) saying they are more likely to buy a home now.
“Confidence in the market and the increased level of activity is testament to the success Manitoba has had to date in preventing the spread of Covid-19,” said WinnipegREALTORS® President Catherine
Schellenberg. “The Manitoba and Winnipeg real estate markets were in very good shape prior to Covid-19 and the numbers now show a recovery is well underway.”
With the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in May, there was a notable increase in residential sales activity in Manitoba — up nearly 70% compared to April of this year. In fact, the total number of sales in the province in May was only 21 per cent lower compared to May 2019, which was the highest single month of sales on record.
Moreover, in WinnipegREALTORS® mid-month June report, we saw sales gains compared to the same period last year. The 16% increase in MLS® sales is in line with similar percentage increases to what occurred in the first two and one-half months this year prior to the onset of Covid-19.
“The real estate market in Brandon has certainly rebounded as the survey indicates,” said Brandon Area REALTORS® President, Mandy King. “As their businesses ramp back up, REALTORS® in the Brandon area continue to adhere to safe business practices in alignment with the Manitoba Government’s health protocols.”
Key findings of the survey
• One-quarter of Manitobans are potential homebuyers, including 5% who are actively in the market for a new home and another one-in-five (21%) who are considering making this major investment. Nearly one-half of renters in the province and one-in-five homeowners fall into this category of potential homebuyers.
• Only one-in-ten Manitobans (11%) say they are now less likely to purchase a home because of Covid-19, with the vast majority (84%) saying the pandemic has no bearing on their homebuying intentions and a very small number (4%) saying they are more likely to buy a home now.
• First-time homebuyers are more likely to be affected one way or the other by the pandemic, as one-quarter (24%) say they are less likely to purchase a home while a similar proportion (20%) say they are actually more likely to buy a home now.
• The small number of Manitobans who say they are more likely to buy a home now are most likely to say this is because they expect lower prices for homes. Those who are less likely to buy a home because of Covid-19, on the other hand, are most likely to indicate this is because their financial circumstances have worsened.
• Younger adults (as well as lower-income Manitobans) are most likely to say they are less likely to buy a home now due to Covid-19, while the small number of younger adults who say they are less likely to buy a home now cite job/income loss as the main reason. These findings suggest younger adults may experience greater difficulty of achieving the aspiration of owning a home in the coming years.
Curtis Brown, a principal with Probe Research, who was involved in preparing and executing this survey, seized on the finding which showed first-time homebuyers more split down the middle and divided in how they saw the pandemic affecting them.
“The piece with potential first-time homebuyers is actually kind of interesting — compared to others, they’re both more likely and less likely to be entering the market,” said Brown. “Some undoubtedly see Covid-19 causing a potential buying opportunity, while others who have experienced some degree of economic hardship are less likely to buy something now.”
As was witnessed at the end of June, buyers were clearly back and active in the real estate market after the pause during the economic shutdown in late March and into May. The 24% increase in WinnipegREALTORS® June MLS® sales over the same month last year was concrete evidence of what Manitobans were telling us in the early June survey.
The reluctance of first-time buyers to purchase a home may dissipate somewhat as Manitoba makes further progress on reopening its economy and getting people back to work due to its success in flattening the coronavirus curve.
A take-away for WinnipegREALTORS® after seeing such a strong rebound in sales activity in the second half of May and June is that homeownership is alive and well. It will continue to be an aspiration the majority of Manitobans — and Canadians — highly covet in their lives.
Peter Squire is WinnipegREALTORS® Vice-President, External Relations & Market Intelligence.